Charts and my views on them (Your views are welcome as well)

[babukraman]

Hi all,
I'm Babu Kothandaraman and this is my first post (apart from the intro) here. I'm an active member of Yahoo Group -Technical Investor (Prashanth is the mod), inditraders dot com and traderji dot com. During the course of an year or so, I've learnt TA from these three forums and various other resources. What made me to understand TA is Saint's "Teach a man to fish..." series of articles on the traderji dot com forum. That particular, easy to understand tutorial has helped me to put all the pieces together during my initial stages. As I've learnt from these forums, it's my great pleasure to give something back to these forum; if not for the seniors, atleast, the newbies might find these charts useful.
Please consider these charts for academic purpose only. If you wish to take any trading calls with the help of these charts, please adhere to strict money management rules to make the best out of these charts!
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

By the way, if you already know me from any of these forums, you might just find me boring!

[babukraman]

Reserved for follow up
01) Scrip Price on Pattern
JSPL 678.55 15-Nov H n S
H(ead) probably at the end of the rally;
H(ead) reversing at the 750 R levels
Rally is from Aug low of 610 to Oct high of 750
This rally has witnessed negative divergence of MACD histogram, RSI and STOC
Target: 630 - (750 - 690) = 630
Neckline b/d on 12th Nov with 1.9x (times) Vol>VolMA5
15th Gap down opening and C<O. So, a valid short trade entry

[babukraman]

Reserved for follow up, again!

[babukraman]

JSPL
Hns at the end of the rally
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4897/20101113jindalsteelpowe.png

[babukraman]

Infact, the below view was referred with Sensex as an example. I don't have Sensex data; hence, I'm using the Nifty. However, the ideas are not mine. Credit to Mr.T.R. Arul Rajhan
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/4237/2010novniftymirrorimage.png
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Hi all,
Is this an ascendng triangle formation? or ..............

more comments on the chart itself
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2862/20101116bhushansteel.png
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[Prashanth]

Hi all,
Is this an ascendng triangle formation? or ..............

more comments on the chart itself
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2862/20101116bhushansteel.png
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

I would say it best looks like a Rectangle Breakdown.

[babukraman]

I would say it best looks like a Rectangle Breakdown.

Thanks Prashanth for your response! I just try to give an obivous looking choice with out any reasons and the other one with the detailed study so that the viewer is forced to decide (think)! Just a few teasers! :D
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Hi all,
Sorry for making a mess of a chart! Just wanted to bring everything on one chart. Hope it's clear!
Regarding the EMAs
10 EMA is below 20 and 48 EMA
20X48 EMA from above (about three sessions back)
Price closing below the 100EMA the very next session confirmed bearishness.
Price closed below 100 EMA for 2 out of 3 sessions.
200 EMA @ 1247 might be the next S (as of writing this, the price has come as close as 1252)
Then, the most important aspect of the trend line. The neckline cum 100 EMA b/d on the 16th.
Formation of LH, LL

All these conditions spell bearishness for ONGC. There are a few more comments on the chart itself!

Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/3766/20101116ongchns.png

[babukraman]

Hi all! It has been brought to my attention by a few of the seniors, including Prashanth, that this concept has already been discussed on a few other forums. Neverthless, a nice study from an academic perspective.
Thanks!
Babu KothandaramanInfact, the below view was referred with Sensex as an example. I don't have Sensex data; hence, I'm using the Nifty. However, the ideas are not mine. Credit to Mr.T.R. Arul Rajhan
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/4237/2010novniftymirrorimage.png
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

This is a followup of TATA ELXSI, previously reviewed on the 1st Oct
Previous view
TataElxsi
A nice case study multiple patterns within the same chart.
Oct 1st Close @ 261.05
Weekly: It’s a clear HnS since the Apr ’09 up trend. The volume of up bars of left shoulder higher than the Vol of up bars of the head; and the right shoulder’s vol is still diminishing. That too, with a bearishly slanting neckline. Wow! A text book pattern. But wait! The RS meeting the neckline about 5 weeks back was a reversal hammer pattern with only marginal volume. So, HnS break out is not so strong
Let’s take the other view (of mine). The latest weekly bar is perfect bullish up bar formed exactly at the 240 level which is the neckline support of the RS about 5 weeks back. For a possible reversal, the weekly STOC has broken the down trend line and RSI b/o still to go. Oh! One more thing! If you view the MACD histogram, it’s showing a positive divergence. So, is it going to be a bearish HnS breakout or a bullish up bar reversal?
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/2739/20101001tataelxsihnsorb.png
Current view
Well! The answer is Bullish reversal! During that reversal, can you spot the spot of SFFP? :D Just a teaser!
It was noted that a hammer @ S of the neckline, followed by a bullish up bar reversal pattern along with the downtrend line b/o of the STOC. Then it went on to b/o RSI downtrend line and a bullish reversal made. Is it coincidence that I'd reviewed this on the 1st Oct, exactly at the reversal confirmation point? :D
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/1867/20101116tataelxsifailed.png

[babukraman]

Previous View on the 29th Oct
ALOK INDUSTRIES (ALOKTEXT)
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/4085/2010octalokindustrieslt.png
Current view:D
http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/9484/2010novalokindustriesfo.png

[babukraman]

JSW STEEL 20101118
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/3764/20101118jswsteellimited.png

[babukraman]

Madras Cements
Earlier view on the 29th Oct
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/3448/20101029madrascementsdt.png

and now........
http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/9812/2010novmadrascementsfol.png

[babukraman]

Previous view on the 29th Oct
ONMOBILE @ 334.4

Weekly: Perfect bearish down bar, possibly at the LH.
http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/2841/20101029onmobilegloball.png

Daily: b/d the intermediate uptrend line as discussed earlier and the new LL validate the neg. divergences in RSI and STOC. New LL made
http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/1428/20101029onmobileglobald.png

ONMOBILE now..........
http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/9953/2010novonmobileglobal.png

[babukraman]

Previous view on the 12th Nov
Suzlon SFFP confirmed

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3474/20101112suzlonenergysff.png

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/8629/20101112suzlonenergyaym.png

Now, SUZLON on the 18th Close
With the price reaching the first target level of the symmetrical triangle breakdown as explained in the above chart, what are the chances? Please take a look at the below chart!
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5167/20101118suzlonenergyinv.png

[babukraman]

Hi all,
Regarding the charts being posted by me, I haven't received any response from anyone else except the mod, Prashanth himself. I'm also posting the same views on Yahoo TI forum, inditraders and traderji dot com. If you're all already members of those groups, then I may need not post the same views here. I'm also not sure if these charts are useful to you or not. If not, only with your feedback, I can see any other way to make them useful to you. Let me hear your voices! :D
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[Prashanth]

Thanks for the Charts and the Updates Babu. Always interesting :)

[Prashanth]

Hi all,
Regarding the charts being posted by me, I haven't received any response from anyone else except the mod, Prashanth himself. I'm also posting the same views on Yahoo TI forum, inditraders and traderji dot com. If you're all already members of those groups, then I may need not post the same views here. I'm also not sure if these charts are useful to you or not. If not, only with your feedback, I can see any other way to make them useful to you. Let me hear your voices! :D
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

Somehow members here are more comfortable with data than charts / views is what I presume since even my posts do not get any replies.

If possible, do post, can understand if you stop too. Post at T-I though since there are huge number of your followers there :D

[babukraman]

Somehow members here are more comfortable with data than charts / views is what I presume since even my posts do not get any replies.

If possible, do post, can understand if you stop too. Post at T-I though since there are huge number of your followers there :D

I do understand; even, I don't respond many other members' nice views on the other threads. It's fine with me.
It's nice to know that I've got some followers too! Now, I'm under pressure! :D
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Previous view on the 21st Sep
Hi all,
I'm trying to post my first chart on this forum (Inditraders). Let me see if I can attach the chart through imageshack.
TTK prestige LTD Close: 1003
Bullish engulfing pattern > b/o above the symmetrical triangle > b/o @ 993
Tgt 1: 1014 - 897 = 113 points >> 993+113=1106
Tgt 2: 1053 - 823 = 230 points >> 993+230=1223
Target calculation zones are "arrowed" on the chart
http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/6209/20100921ttkprestigeltds.png

And now............
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/9345/2010novttkprestigefollo.png

[babukraman]

THIRUMALAI CHEMICALS
Twinkle, twinkle little star
And it's Morning star!
Up above the previous Swing High
Will it go? :D
http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/3374/20101122thirumalaichemi.png

[babukraman]

WALCHANDNAGAR INDUSTRIES
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/9480/20101122walchandnagarin.png
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/9480/20101122walchandnagarin.png

[babukraman]

Previous view on the 12th Nov
IVRCL
Weekly HnS
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/2412/20101112ivrclinfrastwkl.png
and now.........
IVRCL - A followup of the 12th Nov review
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/7896/2010novivrcl22ndfollowu.png

[rajankamboj]

Excellent effort. Keep it up. We are silent learners of TA from this thread.All the charts you are posting are made using chart nexus.How do you pick your stocks -is it through some automated exploration or visual inspection only of all the stocks.

[babukraman]

Hi all,
I’m just veering off my usual path of reviewing the chart patterns and indicators; instead, I’m trying to see if there’s a genuine, false break out or a bear trap. As usual, your feedback and comments are always expected. Hope you aren’t going to disappoint me!
Cheers! Now, time for the review!
NELCO
@ 122.35 (-7.8%)
Perfect bearish down bar reversal at the long term R level of 129.
With the last two days efforts, the stock has managed to break out this R level (with the volume) to close @ 132.75 (Intra day High 135.90). Today, the bulls must have been happier to see a gap up open to feel good about a “natural long” scenario.
But what were the “smart money(SM)” and “market makers (MM)” thinking? May be, to “shake out” the “complacent longs”? They must have shorted at this point which might have, in turn, triggered various types of SL of those longs. When it was free for all, till the 116 levels, the SMs and MMs must have covered their shorts to close @ 122.35.
Let me summarize for the bulls:
* There is a long lower wick in this wide range down bar.
* SMs and MMs might see that there is a value in that level. (hence bought it back)
* There is a hint of SFFP out there.
So, is this a retracement (stretched a bit too far to shake out the “weak longs”) or a genuine bearish reversal with a false b/o written all over it?
Trying to think,
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3675/20101123nelcoperfbrdown.png

Yours,
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Excellent effort. Keep it up. We are silent learners of TA from this thread.
I thank you for the feedback, rajankaboj! As I said in my first post of this thread, it's just a small token of appreciation from my side of giving back whatever I've learnt through these forums! I'm also glad that my views are of acadmeic appeal to others as well. So, I'm on the right track! :D
All the charts you are posting are made using chart nexus.How do you pick your stocks -is it through some automated exploration or visual inspection only of all the stocks.
Combination of both! Scans and explorations done on AmiBroker (my friend's contribution) and the visual inspection on Chartnexus by myself. And I filter visually and post the ones which appeals to me.
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Previously.........
IVRCL - A followup of the 12th Nov review
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/7896/2010novivrcl22ndfollowu.png

And now........ on a daily chart
Analysis 20101123 IVRCL Is it longing for a long now?
Even though the (previously discussed) HnS pattern target wasn’t reached, it was still a consistent, southbound move since the 8/11 retest cum break down of the neckline (of 155 levels). The volume levels had been consistent through out this down move of nine sessions,
8th: 2.26 M
9th: 2.23 M
10th: 2.45 M
11th: 1.82 M
12th: 1.60 M
15th: 2.85 M
16th: 2.12 M
18th: 2.21 M
19th: 3.50 M
19th was a wide range bar, O==H and L==C (almost) with a bit of higher volume. The 22nd and 23rd Up bars suggest that the 19th was actually a bottom picking for the “smart money”. Now, let’s have a look at the volume of these up bars
22nd: 3.91 M
23rd: 4.27 M
These volumes suggest that the buying interest indeed has returned. Also, today’s Close has taken out the High of the 19th (the last, wide range bar of the down move). So, isn’t time for a “long”?
By the way, is there any harmonics involved here? Just curious! If anyone could throw some light on this, much appreciated!
Yours,
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/4030/20101123ivrclisitlongno.png

[babukraman]

Previous view of Nifty on the 12th Nov
Nifty
How do you want look at it? Cheers! Babu Kothandaraman
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/3226/20101112niftydailyuptre.png

and the Weekly
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6527/20101112niftyweeklybuyo.png

And now..........
As I promised some time back, that I'm trying to post this before reading any other Nifty views. So, I'm not biased towards to others' views.

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/7784/20101126niftydailyfollo.png
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/4479/20101126niftyweeklyfoll.png

[babukraman]

Previously......... Jindal Steel JSPL
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/8476/20101112jindalsteelpowe.png

JSPL follow up
01) Scrip Price on Pattern
JSPL 678.55 15-Nov H n S
H(ead) probably at the end of the rally;
H(ead) reversing at the 750 R levels
Rally is from Aug low of 610 to Oct high of 750
This rally has witnessed negative divergence of MACD histogram, RSI and STOC
Target: 630 - (750 - 690) = 630
Neckline b/d on 12th Nov with 1.9x (times) Vol>VolMA5
15th Gap down opening and C<O. So, a valid short trade entry
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4897/20101113jindalsteelpowe.png
And now...........what's next?
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/5738/20101126jindalsteelfoll.png

[babukraman]

Previous view on the 12th Nov
Suzlon SFFP confirmed

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3474/20101112suzlonenergysff.png

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/8629/20101112suzlonenergyaym.png

Again, SUZLON on the 18th Close
With the price reaching the first target level of the symmetrical triangle breakdown as explained in the above chart, what are the chances? Please take a look at the below chart!
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5167/20101118suzlonenergyinv.png

Now, SUZLON on the 26th Close
http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/4504/20101126suzlonenergyfol.png

[babukraman]

Axis bank on the 26th Nov
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9499/20101126axisbank.png

[babukraman]

Rohit Ferro
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/1064/20101126rohitferro.png

[babukraman]

Nifty another view!
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/6695/2010novniftyhindisighti.png

[babukraman]

Hi all,
I'm trying my hand at the US $ Index for the first time. Please give me your feedback! I would like to point out that I haven't read any of the US dollar reports from any other analysts as it's a very complicated topic for me. Here, I'm posting my views purely based on what I'm seeing on the chart! Please, please post your feedback! I appreciate it!
Regards
Babu Kothandaraman
US $ Index
20101126 by Babu Kothandaraman
http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/3042/20101126usdollar.png
Bigger picture: A HnS reversal had been in effect since the breakdown of the neckline on 21/09 for a target of {80.20 – (88.71 – 80.11)} = 71.60
Did it reach the target?
Though the HnS pattern’s supposed target is 71.60 levels, please take note of the reversal @ 75.84 level. This level had been providing Support on 5 different previous occasions; 4th Jan ’08, 21 Aug ’08, 22 Sep ’08, 21 Sep ’09 (history repeats after an year of gap) and the latest 4th and 5th Nov 10.
Especially, it had been a Bullish Engulfing pattern and what a pattern right at the Support level! Is it only good enough for a reversal or a “long” entry? (Though this is a line chart, please refer to the next one for the candlestick view)

To find out the answer for this question, let’s move down to the RSI factor. When the price was at its lowest of LL levels, the RSI had been making a HL at that time for a possible positive divergence. Did RSI stop at that? No! It started crossing 50 line from below to underline the bullish sentiment.

Now, let’s move back to the Price. On the 16th Nov, Price hit the Resistance of the downtrend line around 79 levels for a slight pull back. Aha! It’s a Higher High (HH) now. Then, there was a slight pull back and where did this pull back stop? At around 78.21, exact levels of the R turned S levels. What did it do there? Surprisingly, yet another Bullish Engulfing pattern at the Support level on the 22nd Nov. Eventually, it’s also a Higher Low (HL) formation. And more than that, downtrend line break out took place immediately.
This is interesting! The price has made HH, HL and destined to make another HH which is good for bulls. But, what aren’t good for the bulls?
1. Price is now hitting the Resistance of the extended neckline of the previous HnS formation.
2. More than that it’s hovering around the 200 EMA levels.

Even with these two Resistances at the proximity, I feel that the HH, HL formation is going to win over. Why? Let me give you another view for the bulls, this time with SRMAC (SriRam’s Moving Average Crossover). Please take a look at the below chart

For this, I’m just plotting 10, 20, 48 and 200 EMAs on the chart. I keep the indicators study intact. 10 EMA had crossed the 20 EMA earlier and the 48 EMA just two sessions back from below.
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1305/20101126usdollarsrmac.png
Even though, I’m bullish, I’m also cautious of these two Resistance levels. I would also expect everyone else who has gone through this article as well!

[babukraman]

TUBEINVESTMENTS OF INDIA (TUBEINVEST)
30/11/10 @ 132.85

Today’s wide range bar with 2.8xVol>VolMA5, closing near the High indicates that the strength seems to show up. The important aspect of this reversal is that the price has taken the support of 200EMA today for this show of strength.
Without the help of plotting any uptrend line, it can easily been seen that the uptrend line has been broken down during the first week of Nov. Since then, it has been on a slide. Today’s perfect bullish up bar reversal pattern at the 200 EMA triggers for a bullish view. A Close above today’s High should be a “Buy”.

There is also a contrarian but a very valid argument that it’s always a “sell” on the pullback of a downtrend.

What's your pick?
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/8482/20101130tubeinvestments.png

[babukraman]

TTK PRESTIGE
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/4903/20101130ttkprestigeltd8.png

[babukraman]

ITC
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/2066/20101130itcltd800x600.png

[babukraman]

Is a trend line valid, once it is breached?
Babu Kothandaraman
2010-12-02
One must have a dynamic view as far as Technical Analysis is concerned. How this dynamism plays an important role is explained below.

Once a trend line is breached, there are three possibilities.
1. A reversal or
2. A side ways movement or
3. The continuation of the same trend but to a much shallower degree than the previously steeper one.

Case Study of Bank Nifty on Daily chart
Period: Jan ’08 to Apr ’09 down trend period
Chart legends:
Line 1B: The very obvious down trend line of that decline.
Line 1A: Drawn connecting the points 1 and 2 (Lower High of May ’08).
Line XY: it isn’t a trend line but a Support during Oct & Nov ’08 and Jan & Mar ’09.
http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/943/2010decbankniftyisatren.png
Let’s consider the down trend line 1A (hmm.. sounds like a bus route, here in Chennai). It had consistently been Resistance level at points marked 2, 3 and 4. After the point 4 Resistance, there was a break out in Aug ’08. Let’s pause here for a while. Since, there was a break out, did it stop us from extending that line? Not at all! As an analyst, we would always extend these trend lines to see whether there would be any retest to happen in future; if so, will these extensions provide the required Support (in this case) or Resistance (in case of an uptrend line break down). Here, there was a retest at point 5 which held well as a Support. Again, this extension of the down trend line held up as Support levels at points 6 and 7.
One may question about the validity of this Support level when the price went down through this line twice, between the point 6 and 7. I’ve drawn the Support line XY at lows of those pull backs which later had provided Support on two other occasions. Please be reminded that the line XY is not a trend line but a Support level formed when price went down through our main trend line 1A. The reversal occurred from the point 7 and to dwelve upon it would be a deviation from our point of discussion now.
The down trend line 1A was breached in Aug ’08; the trend still continued but on a slightly shallower angle; and the price happened to take the Support of this breached down trend line before reversing at point 7 for good.
Conclusion:
The trend lines must dynamically be extended, even if breached, to get a clear picture of the price actions.

[babukraman]

Nifty at the crossroads?
Babu Kothandaraman 2010-12-03
I’ve drawn three lines on Nifty daily chart for this purpose.

Line1: Every one is aware of this Resistance turned Support line.

Line2: At around 6030 zone, this line was Resistance in Sep ’10. When this line got broken out and retested, then it was Support in the late October, twice. During mid November, this Support was broken down, got re-tested and the price went to take Support of the Line1. From there, it had reversed up and now again, facing the Resistance of Line2 at the 6030 zone.

Line3: it’s an uptrend line connecting three of the Higher Lows. During mid Nov., when the price bounced off of this uptrend line, it faced the Resistance of Line2 (at 6030 levels). What happened then? Well, the price reversed off that Line2 zone and broken down the uptrend line on the 24th Nov. After that uptrend line break down, the price went down, reversed up and guess what? Now, it's facing the Resistance from the extended uptrend line.
http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/2968/2010decspcnxnifty800x60.png
So, Nifty is definitely struggling at the crossroads of Line2 and Line3 at around 6030 zone.

What has it got now, an excuse to reverse from here or some strength to blow away this Resistance level?

[babukraman]

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/7394/2010decspcnxniftyline3o.png

[babukraman]

TATA STEEL
2010-12-03

Daily chart
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1531/20101203tatasteeldestri.png
585 levels had previously been Resistance for four times at least (Oct ’09, Dec 09, early Feb ’10 and late Feb ’10). It had broken out thrice and down twice. Now the price has taken Support this level twice, during early as well as late Nov ’10.
There are two scenarios here.
1. Descending triangle: The top of the pattern is at the 680 levels and it’s very close to the 52 week High of 705 levels. And usually, this is a bearish pattern. So, a bearish pattern at the Resistance zone.
2. Positive divergences: Now let’s move closer to the price action for the month of Nov ’10. On the 1st Nov and 30th Nov, the price has made double bottom taking the Support of 585 levels. The MACD histogram, RSI and STOC have formed positive divergences for these corresponding lows. (RSI’s is very marginal though)

Now comes the question. Do you want to play the pattern or the divergences?

[babukraman]

20101206 NMDC
http://img697.imageshack.us/img697/3669/20101206nmdcltd.png

[babukraman]

TATA STEEL
2010-12-03

Daily chart
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1531/20101203tatasteeldestri.png
585 levels had previously been Resistance for four times at least (Oct ’09, Dec 09, early Feb ’10 and late Feb ’10). It had broken out thrice and down twice. Now the price has taken Support this level twice, during early as well as late Nov ’10.
There are two scenarios here.
1. Descending triangle: The top of the pattern is at the 680 levels and it’s very close to the 52 week High of 705 levels. And usually, this is a bearish pattern. So, a bearish pattern at the Resistance zone.
2. Positive divergences: Now let’s move closer to the price action for the month of Nov ’10. On the 1st Nov and 30th Nov, the price has made double bottom taking the Support of 585 levels. The MACD histogram, RSI and STOC have formed positive divergences for these corresponding lows. (RSI’s is very marginal though)

Now comes the question. Do you want to play the pattern or the divergences?

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/5205/20101208tatasteellimite.png

[babukraman]

TATA ELXSI 20101209
HnS
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/2567/20101209tataelxsihns.png

[babukraman]

WIPRO @ 450.95 on 20101210
By this close, it has made a HH (has been on a down trend since mid Oct). Also, a R level of 442 has been broken out with 0.6xVol>VolMA5. The next Resistance will be the 452 level, the top line on the chart.
The Support must be around the 48EMA @ 430 and 100EMA @ 426 levels.
(Hindsight: Current rally has yielded a 12% up move with a tweezer bottom cum double bottom at the 400 levels, well supported by the positive divergences on the indicators. That too, in a bearish biased, choppy market conditions, a steady performer so far)
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9974/20101210wipro.png

[babukraman]

20101210 Nifty http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5222/20101210nifty.png

[babukraman]

20101210 BankNifty
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/6245/20101210banknifty.png

[babukraman]

20101210 AxisBank
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/6602/20101210axisbankposdive.png

[babukraman]

RELINFRA

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/8060/20101210relianceinfrast.png

[babukraman]

REC

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/2306/20101210ruraleleccorplt.png

[babukraman]

Hello!
The first chart is by a TIYahoo group member VerendraChoudhry. Credits to him!
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/1994/20101213statebankveeren.png
And the next one is mine.
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/2107/20101213statebankofindi.png

Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

Biocon
On the 3rd Dec, retraced till 50% level on an intraday basis. Then again, on the 15th (today) retested this level (of around 416) along with a formation of dark cloud cover.
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/9629/2010decbioconlimited800.png

[babukraman]

KLG SYSTEL LTD
16/12/2010
Babu Kothandaraman

The stock is in a clear down trend; below its 200 and 100 EMAs. Currently 100EMA has proved to a Resistance thrice (mid July, early Aug and mid Nov). In mid Nov, the stock had broken down trading range (between 102 and 87) of mid Aug to mid Nov.
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6753/20101216klgsystel.png

Now let’s take a closer look at the current status below for the bulls:
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/1577/20101216klgsystelcloser.png
The stock has made a bullish engulfing pattern with 1/2xVol>VolMA5. This pattern has also broken out the downtrend line. Most importantly the short term fall since mid Nov, is accompanied by the positive divergences of MACD histogram, RSI and STOC.

Now talking from the “trade” perspective, I would term this as an “extreme buy”. Why? With the pronounced long term down trend and a much sharper short term downtrend in place, it’s always advisable to go with trend. But to go “long” on this is extremely risky.
For “Long” enty, the targets are 76, 87 & 92 and SL would be 61.

[babukraman]

Previous view
Hi all,
Is this an ascendng triangle formation? or ..............

more comments on the chart itself
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2862/20101116bhushansteel.png
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
Now
BHUSHAN STEEL LIMITED
BHUSANSTL-20101216
Babu Kothandaraman

With the previous view, I’d expected a 38% retracement to 433 levels. Well! It’s all there for to see!

Now, I’m batting for the bulls. With the price making Lower Lows since that correction, the MACD histogram, RSI and STOC are forming a positive divergence.

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/4580/20101216bhushansteellim.png

[babukraman]

Reliance
A Bollinger band observation
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4062/2010decrelianceindustri.png

[babukraman]

NIFTY
2010-12-16
Babu Kothandaraman

There is a double bottom formed at the 5752 levels with positive divergences on the MACD histogram, RSI and STOC. Also, it has stopped making a new Lower Low.

Are these just good enough for an up move?
Let’s get closer for a macro view.

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4589/20101216nifty.png

48EMA is around 5959 and 100EMA is around 5833. The price is trading between this range for the past three days. And the latest candle on the 16th looks like a hammer. I say, “look alike” because it’s not strictly a “top one third body and bottom two-thirds of a tail” definition of a hammer. The body along with the top wick is more than one third of the range; hence, can be termed as a bullish biased candle. Nevertheless, with the price hitting the Resistance of the downtrend line and 48EMA (around 5955 levels) together, a breakout might see the index reaching 6070 which is the prior swing high.

In EW parlance, it looks like a “(b)” corrective wave trying to form a flat. If so, “c” wave of this “(b)” flat should at least reach, if not exceed the levels of “a” wave of “(b)” which also coincides with the previous swing high of 6070.

But, remember that the TA is more of an art than a science. So, even if the current candle doesn’t strictly confirm to the definitions of a hammer, it has formed at the Resistance zone of the 48EMA and the downtrend line.

So, make your decisions depending on the price actions of the coming days. Happy trading!

[babukraman]

Followup... Then..........

TATA ELXSI 20101209
HnS
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/2567/20101209tataelxsihns.png
Now....... Tata Elxsi

TA is so fascinating that you look at the most obvious things in front of your eyes, and forget to follow up. Especially, when those obvious patterns fail to materialise as per your expectations, there underlies another Support (or Resistance or reason, for that matter) for such happenings. I wouldn't call it as a pattern failure but I failed to look for the other finer points. Please read my comment on the chart.
If any one can recall the "hounds failed to bark (didn't give signals); so, it's an insider's job" from Dr Alexander Elder's "Trading for a living"
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman
http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/1522/20101221tataelxsilimite.png

[babukraman]

Followup...... Then.....ITC
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/2066/20101130itcltd800x600.png

And now....... ITC
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/2015/20101221itcltd800x600.png

[babukraman]

Tata Steel Followup....... Then...TATA STEEL
2010-12-03

Daily chart
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1531/20101203tatasteeldestri.png
585 levels had previously been Resistance for four times at least (Oct ’09, Dec 09, early Feb ’10 and late Feb ’10). It had broken out thrice and down twice. Now the price has taken Support this level twice, during early as well as late Nov ’10.
There are two scenarios here.
1. Descending triangle: The top of the pattern is at the 680 levels and it’s very close to the 52 week High of 705 levels. And usually, this is a bearish pattern. So, a bearish pattern at the Resistance zone. (Thanks to Sharath who brought this to my attention!)
2. Positive divergences: Now let’s move closer to the price action for the month of Nov ’10. On the 1st Nov and 30th Nov, the price has made double bottom taking the Support of 585 levels. The MACD histogram, RSI and STOC have formed positive divergences for these corresponding lows. (RSI’s is very marginal though)

Now comes the question. Do you want to play the pattern or the divergences?

Abhi........
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/898/20101221tatasteellimite.png

[babukraman]

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/5029/20101222jindalsteelpowe.png

[babukraman]

Thanks to a friend who brought this scrip to my attention
Hexaware
http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/5837/20101223hexawaretechnol.png

[babukraman]

Thanks to a friend who brought this scrip to my attention
Subex
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/9700/20101223subexlimitedcnh.png

[babukraman]

20101224 Nifty
Merry X'mas and Happy New Year!
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/1016/20101224spcnxniftycroc.png

[babukraman]

ITC
12-24-2010
Babu Kothandaraman

Last week, I was actually asking for some help from either or all of the EW, VSA or other experts regarding the behaviour of ITC. Well! Now, it has given us some clues.
Needless to say that the stock has been in a trading range between 165 and 180 and languishing to reach the Upper channel for a while. This has resulted in a descending triangle pattern at the top of the up move. Usually, the descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern in a fall. http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/1336/20101224itcltd.png
If reaching the Upper channel has been a struggle, then “the least path of resistance” should logically be through the Lower channel a.k.a the Support at around the 165 levels. But surprisingly, the stock has taken this Support seriously for the past four weeks and hasn’t even tried to break it down. So, we can term this level of Support as a stronger one. At this level, it has formed a Perfect Bullish Up bar reversal pattern with the volume just a shade more than the 5-day MA of Volume. This pattern has also broken out the short-term down trend line within the channel.
The RSI and STOC has also broken out the down trend line. The indicators are showing +ve divergences.
Even though, the Volume is just average, RSI and Price breakout suggests a “Buy” for a target of 180 with a SL below 164.
Happy trading!

[babukraman]

KLG SYSTEL LTD
16/12/2010
Babu Kothandaraman

The stock is in a clear down trend; below its 200 and 100 EMAs. Currently 100EMA has proved to a Resistance thrice (mid July, early Aug and mid Nov). In mid Nov, the stock had broken down trading range (between 102 and 87) of mid Aug to mid Nov.
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6753/20101216klgsystel.png

Now let’s take a closer look at the current status below for the bulls:
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/1577/20101216klgsystelcloser.png
The stock has made a bullish engulfing pattern with 1/2xVol>VolMA5. This pattern has also broken out the downtrend line. Most importantly the short term fall since mid Nov, is accompanied by the positive divergences of MACD histogram, RSI and STOC.

Now talking from the “trade” perspective, I would term this as an “extreme buy”. Why? With the pronounced long term down trend and a much sharper short term downtrend in place, it’s always advisable to go with trend. But to go “long” on this is extremely risky.
For “Long” enty, the targets are 76, 87 & 92 and SL would be 61.

Hmm....... All the three targets achieved though 91.45 acheived as an intraday High, yesterday.KLG SYSTELhttp://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9384/20101224klgsystelfollow.png

[babukraman]

Thanks to Muratt!
Fortis would be a buy abv approx 152-ish for tgt of 164-ish.
This is calculated on the basis of a dbl bottom formation .. break of 152 would confirm the dbl./triple bottom breakout.

Also it has not formed WW
BUT
has some minor positive divergence both on daily and weekly spot charts.

Equity/Cash buy above 152 with SL of 142 for tgt 164 which works out to 1:1 RR.

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/2795/20110103fortishealthcar.png

[babukraman]

Jindal steel JSPL
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9744/20110103jindalsteelpowe.png

[babukraman]

NIFTY
2010-12-16
Babu Kothandaraman

There is a double bottom formed at the 5752 levels with positive divergences on the MACD histogram, RSI and STOC. Also, it has stopped making a new Lower Low.

Are these just good enough for an up move?
Let’s get closer for a macro view.

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4589/20101216nifty.png

48EMA is around 5959 and 100EMA is around 5833. The price is trading between this range for the past three days. And the latest candle on the 16th looks like a hammer. I say, “look alike” because it’s not strictly a “top one third body and bottom two-thirds of a tail” definition of a hammer. The body along with the top wick is more than one third of the range; hence, can be termed as a bullish biased candle. Nevertheless, with the price hitting the Resistance of the downtrend line and 48EMA (around 5955 levels) together, a breakout might see the index reaching 6070 which is the prior swing high.

In EW parlance, it looks like a “(b)” corrective wave trying to form a flat. If so, “c” wave of this “(b)” flat should at least reach, if not exceed the levels of “a” wave of “(b)” which also coincides with the previous swing high of 6070.

But, remember that the TA is more of an art than a science. So, even if the current candle doesn’t strictly confirm to the definitions of a hammer, it has formed at the Resistance zone of the 48EMA and the downtrend line.

So, make your decisions depending on the price actions of the coming days. Happy trading!

20101210 Nifty http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5222/20101210nifty.png

Now......... Nifty followup
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/652/2011janspcnxniftysnrinl.png

or....
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/1793/20110103spcnxniftyasctr.png

[babukraman]

20110104 MARICO
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/4177/20110104maricoltd.png

[babukraman]

ITC
12-24-2010
Babu Kothandaraman

Last week, I was actually asking for some help from either or all of the EW, VSA or other experts regarding the behaviour of ITC. Well! Now, it has given us some clues.
Needless to say that the stock has been in a trading range between 165 and 180 and languishing to reach the Upper channel for a while. This has resulted in a descending triangle pattern at the top of the up move. Usually, the descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern in a fall. http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/1336/20101224itcltd.png
If reaching the Upper channel has been a struggle, then “the least path of resistance” should logically be through the Lower channel a.k.a the Support at around the 165 levels. But surprisingly, the stock has taken this Support seriously for the past four weeks and hasn’t even tried to break it down. So, we can term this level of Support as a stronger one. At this level, it has formed a Perfect Bullish Up bar reversal pattern with the volume just a shade more than the 5-day MA of Volume. This pattern has also broken out the short-term down trend line within the channel.
The RSI and STOC has also broken out the down trend line. The indicators are showing +ve divergences.
Even though, the Volume is just average, RSI and Price breakout suggests a “Buy” for a target of 180 with a SL below 164.
Happy trading!

:D Trailing Stop Loss below 175 levels

[babukraman]

UTV SOFTWARE COMMUNICATIONS
20110104
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/2538/2011utvsoftcomm.png

[babukraman]

20110104 BARTRONICS
http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/3142/20110104bartronicsindia.png

[babukraman]

:D Trailing Stop Loss below 175 levels

ITC Target acheived
Intraday High 180.20
:D

[babukraman]

SBI 20110105
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1135/20110105statebankofindi.png

[sam1121938]

Hi

In my opinion , the descending triangle and descending wedgesa are bullish pattern

sagi

[sam1121938]

SBI 20110105
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1135/20110105statebankofindi.png

Hi

Looks like it will topuch Rs 2579 and then 2426

sagi

[sam1121938]

20110104 BARTRONICS
http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/3142/20110104bartronicsindia.png

Yes , ultimately in a years time we can see the targets of 654/656/670 giving return of 29 t0 40%

a good entry point would be 555 and accumulate if it goes to 500/514 to average

sagi

[sam1121938]

Hi

I am honoured . The stock attained a low of 555.15 at the closing time . and I saw buying coming in as reco-ed by me.

Now keep your money and be ready to buy at lower level as reco-ed by me.

tonight i will check the charts and try to pin point the averaging entry point more precisely.


all the best.

sagi

[sam1121938]

Hi

I am honoured . The stock attained a low of 555.15 at the closing time . and I saw buying coming in as reco-ed by me.

Now keep your money and be ready to buy at lower level as reco-ed by me.

tonight i will check the charts and try to pin point the averaging entry point more precisely.


all the best.

sagi

HI

After studying todays price-volume action , I see a further fall .

If the stock breaches 550 then we can see my earlier reco of averaging the stock( had u bought it today at 555 levels at the closing ) at 512 level will fructify.


If u want to add or invest in this stock my strategy holds good
even now

sai

[Prashanth]

HI

After studying todays price-volume action , I see a further fall .

If the stock breaches 550 then we can see my earlier reco of averaging the stock( had u bought it today at 555 levels at the closing ) at 512 level will fructify.


If u want to add or invest in this stock my strategy holds good
even now

sai

While the stock may come down in line with market (i.e., if market falls), today's fall is on the back of very very low volumes. Its lower by 50% than its 10 day average which means the fall is more likely a result of illiquidity rather than forced selling / distribution.

To me, 550 is only a intermediate / short term support with longer term support being at 510 (as is currently the 200 day EMA)

[sam1121938]

hi

yes ^ thanx for confirming my view.

that is why I said in my first message on utv ,we should average at 512 , as i consider 555 as a good entry point

sagi

[sam1121938]

:DHi

Looks like it will topuch Rs 2579 and then 2426

sagi


hi

it did touch 2579 and fell slightly below to to 2567 and closed at 2596

sagi:D

[dannydan999]

Hi Babu and everyone

Been reading yr post ...pl keep them up

could u guys guide me on
welspun gujarat cmp 167, my average is abt 260
planned for long term holding...is it a good decision
also can i buy more to average it out? or any other info you could give on this one.

appreciate

i am more of a forex trader (not the Rs)

thks
danny

[sam1121938]

hi

yes ^ thanx for confirming my view.

that is why I said in my first message on utv ,we should average at 512 , as i consider 555 as a good entry point

sagi


Hi

Rs 555 rco-ed by me in my first earlier msg proved to be the good entry point. the stock jumped from there.


Though Mr Prasanth said that it could touch 512 and i agreed with him on that score, but it is not always possible to enter at the ideal low point. , becaos many a times a single trade may happen at that ideal point of entry and we may not be able to catch it. This happen often to satisfy the technical requirements .
That is why I outlined a strategy of going long at 555 and to average by adding more at 512/514 shd it touch that.

The strategy is based on the ifdea that if we enter at 555 and the stock does not touch 512 but goes up then we still make money as it happened today.

on the contrary if the stock touched the 512 level then we would be averaging our holding according to our financial capability and holding the long position in the stock till the ultimate target.

so both ways we make money!

I wish Babu keeps posting charts so that i can give my analysis and post my views so that viewers would benefit

I can create and paste the charts my self but age and eyesight are my limitation.

sagi :D

[sam1121938]

Hi Babu and everyone

Been reading yr post ...pl keep them up

could u guys guide me on
welspun gujarat cmp 167, my average is abt 260
planned for long term holding...is it a good decision
also can i buy more to average it out? or any other info you could give on this one.

appreciate

i am more of a forex trader (not the Rs)

thks
danny


Hi
can Babu or :Dsomeone post the chart so that i can give my views.


sagi::)

[Prashanth]

Hi
can Babu or :Dsomeone post the chart so that i can give my views.


sagi::)

Here is a Daily chart

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/5234/welcorpdaily.png (http://img291.imageshack.us/i/welcorpdaily.png/)

And here is a Weekly chart

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/8049/welcorpweekly.png (http://img141.imageshack.us/i/welcorpweekly.png/)

[sam1121938]

Hi
can Babu or :Dsomeone post the chart so that i can give my views.


sagi::)

HI

Thanx for the charts , Prasanth

My view on the stock welspun is as below.

Technical analysis

Before making a direct reply , i would like to mention here that the nifty foutures would seek the levels 5800/5600 seems to be near ceratin unless the govt intervenes and direct the public controlled institutions like banks MFs LICs to hold the nifty above 5700 as it had happened earlier. So it would be necessary to keep the 5667 level as an important resistance level. once that level is breached we can be near certain that nifty would touch 5555. and then we have to watch and review the situation.

Such being the case we shd automatically assume that stocks like welspun would also follow the Nifty.


So my view is that the stock would touch 159,153 levels in the near future and then there is a possiblity of it touching 111/114 along with the nifty.

On the contrary there is a good possibility of this stock making a dead cat bounce to 194 or even 210. so what shd one do to recover the loss as myfriend has entered the stock at near high of 260 and is sustaining a loss of about re 90 per share.


A fundamental analysus shows that while the profit s have declined this 2nd quarter , the half yearly profits so far has been comparable to prevous year and that the reserves and surplus of the company is nearly 20 times the share holding giving a good story .so the stocks of the companyy shall be held on a long term investor point of view .

PROFIT


Here is my advice. and options that u can choose from.


1. Hold the stock courageously as a long term investor without worrying about the current set back in the share prices. and buy more stocks to average at 112 shd it go there.( if i have 100 shares at 260 then i would buy 200 shares or even more say 300 shares at 112 range so that my average price would be 161(if i buy 200@112) and 146(if i average by buying 300 shares at 112) and hold for long term

2. there is a possibilty of this share rallying to 194 and then fall. so if the share rallies to 194 then i would sell and buy it back at 156 and wait for furthe r fall and buy and average at 112 as explaind above and hold for long term.
3.Iwould book the loss now and buy another share which good give a faster growth and make up the loss comfortable. There are many stocks which could give us returns and grow faster so that the loss is recovered early.

4. i simply ignore the loss and hold the stock for long term and in a year or tw0 it will be 401( the approximate date of this happening would be 31/03/2012.

Tell me which option u would choose . if u choose 1,2,4 then we will continue to monitor this stock to take advantage of the fluctuations! Shd u decide to book loss , let us also find an alternative stock that would recover ur losses as quickly as possible.





all the best

sagi:D

[babukraman]

Nifty 20110107
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/6200/20110107niftywbrish.png

On the 16th Dec, I was looking for a (b) wave of a flat corrective natured pattern and it did happen. With this in mind, on the 3rd Jan, I'd changed my stance to a bullish view instead of looking for (c). What a lesson learnt! The market indeed seems to move toward the (c) wave. Why did I looking for wave (c)?..........
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/5001/20110107niftydabc.png

[babukraman]

Now for the newbies,
(if you think you're a newbie to TA)
It's very simple.
1. Please read and understand the concepts of "Saint's 'Teach a man to fish.....' compilation" from traderji forum which has helped me to put the all the pieces together.
2. Then, Free tutorials on Stockcharts dot com, investopedia dot com.
3. Then, if your band width allows for the viewing and/or downloading Your trading coach dot com's videos of bar patterns reversals.
4. For charting (EOD), I use free version of the chartnexus which provides data only for 3 years (which is good for me and I beleive it's good for the newbies as well).
The above references should indeed be helping you to get started in learning TA. All one needs is a little bit of enthusiasm, focus, determination and dedication to go through these initial stages of this learning process curve.
Again, it's very simple! .............. How much efforts you put in, that much understanding of TA one gets to acquire! In my rough estimate, it may take around 3 to 6 months of this "self-learning" (Baabaa khud-shiko ashram, as RnE has termed it ) process. Please don't jump around from one web site to another or from one chapter to another; please one chapter after another in a clinical fashion.
Extra Curricular Activities (ECA): (Mostly appropriate at the beginner stage itself) While going through this learning process, try to read a few books like Dr Alexander Elder's, "Trading for a living", Edwin LeFavre's "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" aka ROSO, etc., to get a few pointers on the psychology of traders, operators, money management, etc.,
After that One may decide on the next areas of specialisation like Elliott Wave (EW), Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), Harmonic patterns, etc.,
Good luck!
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[sam1121938]

Hi

Looks like it will topuch Rs 2579 and then 2426

sagi

Hi


Now that it has breached 2579, 2426 seems to be near certain. many would expect a bull back on 11/01/2011, but I think the pull back could happen only the day after

sagi:D

[dannydan999]

Dear Sam
thks a lot for the reply on welspun.
really appreciate yr detailed reply complete with 4 options...that was really wonderful.

considering the 4 options...and also that i have a large holding so if i were to average at 112 to bring price to 161 ..i would again need a huge capital.

hence i willdo the following
1) i will wait for price to move to 194 then sell 50% of my holding (the bal 50% i will hold for long long investement) and then buy back at 156 around.
2) incase price not going to 194 and moves down to 112 levels then i will have no choice but to buy qty as will be permited by my capital at that time.

thank you once again for the details and incase anything pertaining to welspun comes up pl do post it...

thks to babu and prasanth too
rgds
danny

[sam1121938]

Hi Dan,

Yes I think that is a good way to deal with it.

please remember that bottom fishing in welspun may not be easy. So u have to be alert.

2. I will put it under my watchlist.
3. please remind me when the stock rallies near 185/190.
The we will refdne our methods to get the best results.


sagi:D

[dannydan999]

hi sam

thks again
and i will surely remind you ard 185 levels on welspun

b rgds
danny

[sam1121938]

Hi


Now that it has breached 2579, 2426 seems to be near certain. many would expect a bull back on 11/01/2011, but I think the pull back could happen only the day after

sagi:D

Hi donot be carried away by the up trend of yesterday.

Things are all not that bright. Stock market sharks are trying the age old method of distributing the stocks that would fall. they take it very high and distribute hem at the high prices to gullibles and then the stocks nosedives leaving the buyers in ALURCH!



SAGI:D

[sam1121938]

:DHi


Now that it has breached 2579, 2426 seems to be near certain. many would expect a bull back on 11/01/2011, but I think the pull back could happen only the day after

sagi:D

Hi

SBI breached 2579 convincingly. 2426 is certain!


Inflation has takren the toll opf banking stocks.




Going long in bank stocks is not recommended unless the inflation goes to single digit


sagi:D

[sam1121938]

:D


hi

it did touch 2579 and fell slightly below to to 2567 and closed at 2596

sagi:D

Hi,

SBI Getting closer to my target of 2426.

With Accumulation/distribution showing distribution,+DI,MACD,RSI,MoMENTUM,MFI nose diving in the charts and the inflation is up in the clouds and what with the image/integrity of Govt is simultaneously plunging towards the Nadir , my target of 2426 is getting closer. And when it gets to 2426 , we have to see whether any more downside is possible.( I am beginning to see the 2387 as a possiblre price of the SBI but would not confirm it now)

only that as the future expiry date nears ,we can see a dead cat rally!

sagi:D

[babukraman]

20110118 BankNifty
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4271/20110118banknifty.png

[sam1121938]

Hi,

SBI Getting closer to my target of 2426.

With Accumulation/distribution showing distribution,+DI,MACD,RSI,MoMENTUM,MFI nose diving in the charts and the inflation is up in the clouds and what with the image/integrity of Govt is simultaneously plunging towards the Nadir , my target of 2426 is getting closer. And when it gets to 2426 , we have to see whether any more downside is possible.( I am beginning to see the 2387 as a possiblre price of the SBI but would not confirm it now)

only that as the future expiry date nears ,we can see a dead cat rally!

sagi:D

getting closet to 2426, Now i wonder whether it would go down further and if so to what level.

Watch this thread for an insight !

sagi:D

[sam1121938]

Hi,

SBI Getting closer to my target of 2426.

With Accumulation/distribution showing distribution,+DI,MACD,RSI,MoMENTUM,MFI nose diving in the charts and the inflation is up in the clouds and what with the image/integrity of Govt is simultaneously plunging towards the Nadir , my target of 2426 is getting closer. And when it gets to 2426 , we have to see whether any more downside is possible.( I am beginning to see the 2387 as a possiblre price of the SBI but would not confirm it now)

only that as the future expiry date nears ,we can see a dead cat rally!

sagi:D

Hi

The dead cat bouce, i talked of is over by yesterday.

and truly the SBI started taking its normal downward trajectory
.

the stock made the predicted dead cat bounce during the jan expiry and so I am looking forward to the lower levels suggeated by me

sagi:D

[babukraman]

JSPL 20110131
Just checking if I still remember how to post the charts! Cheers! Babu Kothandaraman
http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/8094/20110131jindalsteelpowe.png

Daily
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/8094/20110131jindalsteelpowe.png

[babukraman]

SBI 20110105
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1135/20110105statebankofindi.png

STATE BANK OF INDIA
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/8470/20110208statebankofindi.png

[babukraman]

Sintex
An hindsight.........
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/5967/20110208sintexindustrie.png

[babukraman]

JINDALSWH
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9250/20110208jindalsouthwest.png

[babukraman]

LIC HOUSING FINANCE
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/300/20110208lichousingfinan.png

[babukraman]

20110118 BankNifty
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4271/20110118banknifty.png
Bank Nifty 20110208
Also watch out for 200 EMA's S turned into R role

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/2137/20110208banknifty.png

[babukraman]

NIFTY abc correction or 12345 downtrend
20110209
After a long time, I've got a chance to sit, think and write something useful (I guess so!).
Before posting the chart, I remember Chockalingam projecting a target of 5300 levels to the wave (C) with reference to one of our TI members query. (I didn't project any target at that time; just was looking for wave (c)). I thank NC. (couldn't locate his that particular message)
Now, comes the question. Is it an abc correction or 12345 downtrend.
Disclaimer: I've read quite a few reports of EW counts of NIFTY from the likes of Nitin, GV, RnE(from other forum) etc., So, you may not be something new as you go through my charts. However, I'm happy to announce that I start understanding the wave principles from such seniors. Thanks again all!
Just sit back and enjoy the charts!
Part 1
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/4586/20110209spcnxniftyabcor.png
Part 2
http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/4586/20110209spcnxniftyabcor.png

[sam1121938]

Dear Sam
thks a lot for the reply on welspun.
really appreciate yr detailed reply complete with 4 options...that was really wonderful.

considering the 4 options...and also that i have a large holding so if i were to average at 112 to bring price to 161 ..i would again need a huge capital.

hence i willdo the following
1) i will wait for price to move to 194 then sell 50% of my holding (the bal 50% i will hold for long long investement) and then buy back at 156 around.
2) incase price not going to 194 and moves down to 112 levels then i will have no choice but to buy qty as will be permited by my capital at that time.

thank you once again for the details and incase anything pertaining to welspun comes up pl do post it...

thks to babu and prasanth too
rgds
danny

Hi danny

it is 187 now, just 7 short of the target given by me.

I will post a review on this stock tonight


sagi:D

[sam1121938]

Hi danny

it is 187 now, just 7 short of the target given by me.

I will post a review on this stock tonight


sagi:D

Hi

Danny asked for guidance on this stock.
earlier.

Imentionrd that the stock may go to 194 and he shd sell there and buy back at lower levels.

Now the price of welcorp has almost reached the target , 194.4 being the high of 21/02/2011. So as promised then , i said i would review this stock.


The stock is in bullish mode. The chances of it touching 202 are bright.



There is a good possibility of this stock touching 175/170

The options open are
1. to sell 30% of the holdings at 202 and buythat back at 175/170 levels.


However the targets for this stock is as under in the medium to long term perceptive.

Rs 231 : earliestdate 01/04/2011: last date 21/04/2011

Rs 254 : earliest date 14/04/2011 : last date 05/05/2011


This is the latest terchnical view.

there is another option: one who bought the stock at high

can add more quantites at 175/170 levels and book profit on that extra quantities at 254 and hold the original holding for 2012.

we will; review the stock at the various levels outlined below,.

sagi:D

[sam1121938]

Hi

Danny asked for guidance on this stock.
earlier.

Imentionrd that the stock may go to 194 and he shd sell there and buy back at lower levels.

Now the price of welcorp has almost reached the target , 194.4 being the high of 21/02/2011. So as promised then , i said i would review this stock.


The stock is in bullish mode. The chances of it touching 202 are bright.



There is a good possibility of this stock touching 175/170

The options open are
1. to sell 30% of the holdings at 202 and buythat back at 175/170 levels.


However the targets for this stock is as under in the medium to long term perceptive.

Rs 231 : earliestdate 01/04/2011: last date 21/04/2011

Rs 254 : earliest date 14/04/2011 : last date 05/05/2011


This is the latest terchnical view.

there is another option: one who bought the stock at high

can add more quantites at 175/170 levels and book profit on that extra quantities at 254 and hold the original holding for 2012.

we will; review the stock at the various levels outlined below,.

sagi:D

Hi

As i said holding the stock for the year 2012 appears very tempting

So i would like to comment on this stock almost every day to decide as when one shd sell in order to buy back at lower level and by doing that investors at higher level will be able to make decent profits.


sagi

[babukraman]

20110223 LIC Housing Finance
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/2772/20110223lichousingfinan.png

[babukraman]

Dear members,
I just want to let you all know what's happening from my side and at the same time I'm not sure whether this might sound like marketing or not. I hope the moderators are fine with my update here.

I've been offered a position at Midas Technicals, a start-up Web Advisory Services under the banner of midastechnicals.com which is wholly owned by Midas Technicals Ventures(MTV) LLP. B. Sriram, Reliable stocks, Chennai is the Managing Partner of this venture and his co-venturers are: GV(G.Vasantha Mohan) - Prashanth - AP(Abhijit Phatak) - AS(Abhijit Selukar) - Sumit Bajaj. We have been/will be ably supported in this venture by one Mr.Javed Merchant.

As I'd been on the ships for around 20 years and having self-retired about a couple of years back, I've been very hesitant to go for a career where my heart hasn't been. I've been passionate about chess and more into teaching it to the kids for a while; but the circumstances didn't suit me to take it as my profession. During these two years, I'm also previleged to get involved into Technical Analysis through Yahoo Technical Investor Group, Traderji and inditraders forum. As I've mentioned many a times on earlier occasions, Saint's "Teach a man to fish..." compilation has immensely helped to put many a pieces of TA together. Along came this offer and I'm really looking forward to this career in the financial markets.

As I'm about to take up this new job from 28th Feb, 2011 (Monday) onwards, I take this moment to thank quite a number of fellow members of various forums here. If I've forgotten to add your name here, please forgive me as age is catching upon me. :-) (What an excuse!). Let me begin with Saint, MurAtt aka SM, Vish, JK, Romeo n Elliott, VishalAlluri, Rajendran of marketcalls, VSNL, KKP investor, Shiree, karthikmarar, raunakagarwal, kaka, soumya, uasish, tradewithhunder aka SH, SS, NChokkalingam, DJ, Amit, Floyd Johny Lewis, murthymsr, Hemen Kapadia, PRSPTL and many more........ and adding my colleagues mentioned in para 2 to this list. Most of you've inspired me to learn TA through your various self-less articles and quite a few of you've made me to learn more. And also, I would like to thank all those members who've patiently been reading my views on charts and taking their time to give me the feedback. These feedback have helped me to grow taller.

I thank you all!
There's a whole new world out there, baby! (From tomorrow onwards, at the least, for me!)
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

20110323 CIPLA
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9462/20110323cipla.png

Sustained downtrend since early Jan '11. The downtrend line is a significant one as the price has tested it around five different times on this daily chart. During the downtrend, the MACD has shown a nice Class A positive divergence.

With that said, the price has broken out the Resistance of downtrend line only today with a 3%Vol>VolMA5. Even though today's volume is meagre for a valid breakout.

Let's check out the history of volume
On Fri, 18th: Vol 63.2% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of -1.7%
On Tue, 22nd: Vol 61.8% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of 1.3%
On Wed, 23rd: Vol 3.7% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of 4.2%

With higher volumes on down days, one would expect the price to keep moving on the same direction. However, 22nd and 23rd's combined price and volume action has resulted in making a new HH during this downtrend.

RSI's downtrend line got broken out during Feb end and it has formed a double top around 50 levels with the price continuing it's down move. As Alexander Elder classifies this as an insignificant C class divergence, what is to be noted here is that the RSI testing the 50 levels for a break out. Once this break out occurs, it can safely be assumed that bulls are interested in this scrip.

With the price breaking out the downtrend line with low volume, we can expect the price to retest the downtrend for a Support. If the price holds above 310 levels (Previous pivot High), we can expect the 325 levels (38.2% fib retracement level of the current fall) in the very near future.

[babukraman]

20110324 RAYMOND
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/1804/20110324raymondltd.png

[babukraman]

Dear members,
I just want to let you all know what's happening from my side and at the same time I'm not sure whether this might sound like marketing or not. I hope the moderators are fine with my update here.

I've been offered a position at Midas Technicals, a start-up Web Advisory Services under the banner of midastechnicals.com which is wholly owned by Midas Technicals Ventures(MTV) LLP. .........

Just to let you all know that I had to (unfortunately) leave Midas Technicals due to personal commitments.
I wish good luck to Prashanth and his team for a great success!
Regards,
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

20110325 NIFTY
Babu Kothandaraman

Gap up opening with 2.4% price increase; Volume 37% (i.e 0.37 times)> Vol MA5. Today’s gap up above the 50 EMA has taken it past the 200 EMA which is a very good sign for the bulls. Incidentally, there isn’t any MACO yet.

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/5092/20110325niftyregchart.png

The previous four up bars have been showing consistent increase in volume. However, the volume in general has been declining though the index has broken out Resistance level of the previous pivot highs of 5609 (of 4th March) and 5599 (of 18th Feb).

MACD, RSI and STOC have been forming a seemingly minute negative divergences, making lower highs while the price is making higher highs.

With the price and volume going the opposite ways, extreme care must be taken by the investors to form an opinion about this week’s gains.

Let’s all take a moment to pray for all those victims and survivors of the giant tsunami wave in Japan.

[babukraman]

20110328 ITC
http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/4996/20110328itcbacktotheran.png

[babukraman]

20110328 ESSARSHIPPING
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/6177/20110328essarshipportnl.png

[babukraman]

20110328 ACE aka ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT LIMITED
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7576/20110328actionconstequi.png

[babukraman]

LIC HOUSING FINANCE
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/300/20110208lichousingfinan.png

20110223 LIC Housing Finance
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/2772/20110223lichousingfinan.png
LIC HOUSING FINANCE followup
Intraday High of 223.40. .......... Right on track.........!:D

[babukraman]

20110408 ITC followup
20110328 ITC
http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/4996/20110328itcbacktotheran.png

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9327/20110408itcfollowup.png

[babukraman]

LIC HOUSING FINANCE
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/300/20110208lichousingfinan.png

20110223 LIC Housing Finance
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/2772/20110223lichousingfinan.png

20110408 LIC Housing Finance followup

Target achieved. :D
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/8324/20110408lichousingfinan.png

[babukraman]

20110328 ACE aka ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT LIMITED
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7576/20110328actionconstequi.png

20110408 ACE aka ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT LTD followup
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/5125/20110408actionconstequi.png

[babukraman]

20110328 ESSARSHIPPING
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/6177/20110328essarshipportnl.png

20110408 ESSARSHIPPING followup
http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/4435/20110408essarshipportlo.png

[babukraman]

20110324 RAYMOND 20110324
For those who aren't able to view the below image: http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/1804/20110324raymondltd.png
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/1804/20110324raymondltd.png
20110408 RAYMOND followup
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/3171/20110408raymondfollowup.png

[babukraman]

20110323 CIPLA
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9462/20110323cipla.png

Sustained downtrend since early Jan '11. The downtrend line is a significant one as the price has tested it around five different times on this daily chart. During the downtrend, the MACD has shown a nice Class A positive divergence.

With that said, the price has broken out the Resistance of downtrend line only today with a 3%Vol>VolMA5. Even though today's volume is meagre for a valid breakout.

Let's check out the history of volume
On Fri, 18th: Vol 63.2% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of -1.7%
On Tue, 22nd: Vol 61.8% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of 1.3%
On Wed, 23rd: Vol 3.7% > Vol MA 5 with a price change of 4.2%

With higher volumes on down days, one would expect the price to keep moving on the same direction. However, 22nd and 23rd's combined price and volume action has resulted in making a new HH during this downtrend.

RSI's downtrend line got broken out during Feb end and it has formed a double top around 50 levels with the price continuing it's down move. As Alexander Elder classifies this as an insignificant C class divergence, what is to be noted here is that the RSI testing the 50 levels for a break out. Once this break out occurs, it can safely be assumed that bulls are interested in this scrip.

With the price breaking out the downtrend line with low volume, we can expect the price to retest the downtrend for a Support. If the price holds above 310 levels (Previous pivot High), we can expect the 325 levels (38.2% fib retracement level of the current fall) in the very near future.
20110408 CIPLA followupCorrection
CIPLA view!
Please read as "it has reached the 38.2 fib.......... instead of 31.8 fib........ Big mistake! sorry!
Babu KothandaramanCorrection
CIPLA view!
Please read as "it has reached the 38.2 fib.......... instead of 31.8 fib........ Big mistake! sorry!
Babu Kothandaraman
:)http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/7374/20110408ciplaltd800x600.png

[babukraman]

20110408 SBIN
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/9793/20110408statebankofindi.png

[babukraman]

20110408 JSPL aka Jindal Steel
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/4163/20110408jindalsteelpowe.png

[babukraman]

20110408 MANALI PETRO LTD
http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/7794/20110408mipetrolimited.png

[babukraman]

IRB and DIGJAM
http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/6089/20110408digjamlimited80.png
http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/6089/20110408digjamlimited80.png
http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2845/20110408irbinfradevltd8.png
http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2845/20110408irbinfradevltd8.png

[babukraman]

20110411 NIFTY
Weekly & Daily charts A & B
http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/1880/20110411niftyweekly.png
DailyA
http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/2821/20110411niftydailychart.png
DailyB
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/2821/20110411niftydailychart.png

[babukraman]

20110411 FORTIS HEALTHCARE
http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7066/20110411fortishealthcar.png

[babukraman]

20110412 US $ INDEX Monthly chart
http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/7972/20110413usdollarmonthly.png

[babukraman]

20110415 MANAPPURAM GEN FIN
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/8924/20110415manappuramgenfi.png

[babukraman]

20110408 MANALI PETRO LTD
http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/7794/20110408mipetrolimited.png

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/4369/20110415mipetrofollowup.png

[babukraman]

20110415 AMTEKINDIA LTD
http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/2016/20110415amtekindialimit.png

[babukraman]

20110415 EVERONN
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/885/20110415everonneducatio.png

[babukraman]

20110415 Reliance Industries Ltd
http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/4715/20110415relianceindustr.png

[babukraman]

20110415 APOLLO TYRES LTD
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/1733/20110415apollotyresltd.png

[babukraman]

20110419 BATAINDIA LTD
http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/2241/20119419bataindialtdfla.png

20110419 CENTURY PLYBOARDS
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/9918/20110419centuryplyboard.png

[babukraman]

20110419 NELCO
Inv HnS?
http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/904/20110419nelcoltdinvhns.png

Oopsy! Sorry for the wrong info.

A few corrections noted down in the feedback from members of other forums.

1. The LS low is 66.40 whereas the Head's Low is 67,10 which is not a true Inv HnS
2. The pattern looks more of a rounding bottom CnH than an Inv HnS

Regards,
Babu Kothandaraman

[babukraman]

20110426 SATYAMCOMP
http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/2144/20110426satyamcomputers.png

[babukraman]

20110426 SESAGOA
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/4020/20110426sesagoaltd.png

[babukraman]

20110428 BANKOFBARODA
http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/3531/20110428bankofbaroda.png

[babukraman]

20110428 PETRONENGG
I may be wrong.............:-? :confused:
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/4334/20110428petronenggconst.png

[babukraman]

20110428 PIRAMAL GLASS LTD
http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/3939/20110428piramalglasslim.png

[babukraman]

Hi all,
Recently, there have been couple patterns brought to our notice which have taken quite bit of time to form. First one is that of Infoys (Weekly chart - by myself in my "picture is beauty" thread) and Apollo tyres by Dipak. The former is a HnS taking about eight months to develop and the latter about five months to develop into an inverted HnS. So, now the question rises. How long should one wait for the target to be reached? That should be a million dollar question. Because, during the bull phase of the Sep, Oct '10, patterns like bullish flag (of SBIN, TTKPrestige) and ascending triangles achieved their targets in no time. (Please note that these are the examples I can get with reference to my own charts posted here on this forum).
But, take a look at the below link wherein the author "SaiVenkat" had identified a HnS on Educomp way back in 2009Jan28 for a target of 400. http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/37665-educomp-solution-h-s-reversal.html
Please refer below my observations regarding how Educomp managed to reach that target. Comments are welcome, as usual!
http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/9615/20110429educomphowlongw.png

[babukraman]

20110411 NIFTY
Weekly & Daily charts A & B
http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/1880/20110411niftyweekly.png
DailyA
http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/2821/20110411niftydailychart.png
DailyB
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/2821/20110411niftydailychart.png


20110506 NIFTY
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/4536/20110506nifty.png

[babukraman]

And 20110506 Nifty Fib chart
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/8610/20110506niftyfib.png

[babukraman]

And 20110506 NIFTY - Weekly
SFFP?
http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/5632/20110506niftysffp.png

[babukraman]

20110509 SUZLON
http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/7550/20110509suzlonenergy.png

[babukraman]

20110520 NTPC
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5092/20110520ntpcltd.png

[babukraman]

Today SL hit :-([/QUOTE]
20110526 NTPC
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/4422/20110526ntpcltd.png

[babukraman]

20110526 GRASIM
http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/7827/2011maygrasimindustries.png

[babukraman]

20110531 DLF
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/2339/tachptndbf3dlf.png

[babukraman]

Is a 52 week low a good buy? Case Study
http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/7599/52wklowbuysuzlon.png

[babukraman]

20110615 HINDALCO Weekly
http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/2058/20110615hindalcoindustr.png

[babukraman]

20110615 Bank of Baroda
Is it a double top?
http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/9763/20110616bankbarodadoubl.png

[babukraman]

Just a view on EDUCOMP
http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/7720/20110616educomp.png

[babukraman]

20110617 CNX IT
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/7416/20110616cnxithnsweekly.png

[babukraman]

20110617 NIFTY views

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/3772/20110617niftyweekly1cha.png

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/8113/20110617niftyweekly2sym.png

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/3103/20110617niftyweekly3hns.png

[babukraman]

20110617 IOC
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/2407/20110617ioc.png

20110617 BATAINDIA
http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/8285/20110617bataindia.png

20110617 INGVYSYABK
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/9888/20110617ingvysyabank.png

[babukraman]

20110617 IOC
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/2407/20110617ioc.png

20110617 BATAINDIA
http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/8285/20110617bataindia.png


20110623 IOC (followup)
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/1883/20110623iocrisingwedge.png


20110623 BATAINDIA (followup)
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/5043/20110623bataindia.png

[babukraman]

20110628 PUNJLLOYD Weekly
http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/7913/20110628punjlloydenough.png

[babukraman]

These patterns look good in retrospect! :-)
Cheers!
Babu Kothandaraman

EWI Jefferey Kennedy's 3 in 1 - 201106 Nifty Example
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/9069/20110630nifty3in1.png

[babukraman]

20110707 JUBLFOOD
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/768/20110707jublfood.png

[babukraman]

20110707 KOTAKBANK
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/2432/20110707kotakbank.png

[babukraman]

20110812 Gold Hourly chart
HnS pattern
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/301/20110812goldhourlyengli.png

[sam1121938]

HI

Thanx for the charts , Prasanth

My view on the stock welspun is as below.

Technical analysis

Before making a direct reply , i would like to mention here that the nifty foutures would seek the levels 5800/5600 seems to be near ceratin unless the govt intervenes and direct the public controlled institutions like banks MFs LICs to hold the nifty above 5700 as it had happened earlier. So it would be necessary to keep the 5667 level as an important resistance level. once that level is breached we can be near certain that nifty would touch 5555. and then we have to watch and review the situation.

Such being the case we shd automatically assume that stocks like welspun would also follow the Nifty.


So my view is that the stock would touch 159,153 levels in the near future and then there is a possiblity of it touching 111/114 along with the nifty.

On the contrary there is a good possibility of this stock making a dead cat bounce to 194 or even 210. so what shd one do to recover the loss as myfriend has entered the stock at near high of 260 and is sustaining a loss of about re 90 per share.


A fundamental analysus shows that while the profit s have declined this 2nd quarter , the half yearly profits so far has been comparable to prevous year and that the reserves and surplus of the company is nearly 20 times the share holding giving a good story .so the stocks of the companyy shall be held on a long term investor point of view .

PROFIT


Here is my advice. and options that u can choose from.


1. Hold the stock courageously as a long term investor without worrying about the current set back in the share prices. and buy more stocks to average at 112 shd it go there.( if i have 100 shares at 260 then i would buy 200 shares or even more say 300 shares at 112 range so that my average price would be 161(if i buy 200@112) and 146(if i average by buying 300 shares at 112) and hold for long term

2. there is a possibilty of this share rallying to 194 and then fall. so if the share rallies to 194 then i would sell and buy it back at 156 and wait for furthe r fall and buy and average at 112 as explaind above and hold for long term.
3.Iwould book the loss now and buy another share which good give a faster growth and make up the loss comfortable. There are many stocks which could give us returns and grow faster so that the loss is recovered early.

4. i simply ignore the loss and hold the stock for long term and in a year or tw0 it will be 401( the approximate date of this happening would be 31/03/2012.

Tell me which option u would choose . if u choose 1,2,4 then we will continue to monitor this stock to take advantage of the fluctuations! Shd u decide to book loss , let us also find an alternative stock that would recover ur losses as quickly as possible.





all the best

sagi:D

Hi danny

The levels mentioned for this scrip did happen as analysed by me.

the stock touched 121.4 on 9th aug 2011 as against my prediction that it would touch 112.

DID U PLAY THE STOCKS AS SUGGEST BY ME AND GOT OUT OF THE LOSS??

THERE IS A MODIFICATION TO MY RECO ON THIS STOCK.

THE STOCK NOW APPEARS TO HEAD TOWARDS 85 .

sagi

[babukraman]

20110615 HINDALCO Weekly
http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/2058/20110615hindalcoindustr.png

20110826 HINDALCO - A followup
http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/8471/20110826hindalcoweeklyh.png

[babukraman]

Didn't I post this L&T chart earlier?

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/1817/hns20111014ltmonthlycol.png